Risk Malarkey
When you hear the stat “Your risk of being killed while flying is 100 in a million, while that of being killed while driving is one in million”, do you feel safer flying?
Not me.
There’s a big difference in the stat. In flying you’re not in control. In driving you are. Well, says the naysayer, “What about the drunk who comes over the centerline?” I say, “Sure, factor her.” Tally up all areas of influence as they apply to my driving and then give me my driving mortality stat. I don’t drive drunk; I don’t drive badly. Right there alone if you separate those factors out of the one in a million stat, I bet I’m right on par with airline safety! Put a few more items that are in my favor into the list and I’m safer driving than flying.
Here’s another one: most of the time you can’t blame anyone but yourself for an accident really. Especially if you start from the premise that people will be stupid and do dumb things. If that isn’t a fact I don’t know what is. So going into the world obliges a rather large amount of defensive behavior just to avoid the obvious givens.
I got this from my years of bike and ski racing. All my pals whined about people knocking them down. It was always someone else’s fault why they didn’t win. I decided to refuse to play that game. It worked. When you pay attention it’s amazing how many crashes are a result of your own laziness; when you pay attention it’s much harder to be lazy.
Lastly, there’s the ‘you asked for it’ concept.
So, 70% of accidents of all types are simply preventable, 20% are your own fault, and 9% are just deserts.
People who drive 20 hours every weekend for their hobby, for special events that are ‘real important’, especially for ‘series points’, deserve the wrecks or other snafus they encounter on the way. Does fate ever protect indulgence?
So how’s that for some thoughts on risk!
PS: In terms of self defense risk, I think that anybody who stays out of bars and who goes to bed when the sun goes down should automatically get a black belt. They’ve won 99% of their fights right there!
Re: my previous post, I forgot to conclude my accident analysis: in the end I think that only 1% of events are accidents. That is, most anybody could’ve predicted their likelihood of happening, more or less. OTOH, there’s the 99% of events are accidents way to look at all this: people who are oblivious are those to whom things simply happen. With most people, even when they think they’re in charge, they’re not, they’re being carried on the wave of a fad, a passion or something else that’s predictable and unoriginal. In fact, a good way to wake yourself up about most anything is to see how it’s not original. —It gives you a little perspective sometimes.
